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Junk Bonds and Oil Prices

High-yield debt and oil prices are telling us we’re nowhere near a recession. Consider the fact that oil (WTI) is up 32 percent for the year. Oil is an indicator of growth. If there is no demand prices tank, supply cuts or not. But that’s not happening yet. Furthermore, the appetite for junk bonds continues, which usually means there is plenty of money chasing returns. Granted, this could all change tomorrow, but that’s highly unlikely. Is the economy slowing down? Sure it is and we should be cautious. However, deals are getting done and there are several high-profile IPOs in the pipeline, including Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb. I wouldn’t bet on a meltdown just yet.

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