It’s very tempting to buy stocks when they look cheap and you can always count on the desperate and downtrodden to do just that. That’s because they rely on optimism, one of man’s most primitive of emotions, which can keep us alive in the natural world, but in the make-believe world of stock trading there no place for it. In fact, optimism, with all its seemingly, profound virtues can actually bankrupt. It can turn your money into vapor. So don’t be a fool.
The FTSE 100 lost £56 billion today. That’s a lot of money and it’s hard not to succumb to the idea that this is a global selloff, that there’s more to it than the China-U.S. trade war and Fed hikes. Oil is getting crushed. The yield curve is flattening. And there’s a looming fight between Tariff Man and Xi Jinping in 3 months.
I sold Tencent (TCEHY) today for a 5% gain. I am now 54% in cash, 13% TZA, and 33% SH. These are highly speculative trades and I don’t intend to hold them over the Weekend.