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Hindsight Bias and the Things that Most People Never See Coming

Even POTUS seems to have an explanation for yesterday’s meltdown, but keep in mind that these are after-the-fact narratives. Bullshit stories we like to tell ourselves in order to make sense of a world we absolutely can’t predict or control. Rarely is random chance given credit for such things, because that’s not how our brains are wired. Humans need stories, and most of all, they need fairytales, someone to tell them everything is going to be okay. That’s how we satisfy our need for comfort and security. But it doesn’t reflect reality, it distorts it.

In hindsight everyone knew the market would drop. There was the Fed, Trump’s trade war with China, high stock valuations, etc. Then why didn’t anybody see it coming? And why is everyone spooked?

 

 

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